It doesn’t really take a report for us to know what we are seeing every day, but the Q2/13 Survey Report recently published by Phoenix Management Services confirmed a “waning” optimism from that expressed by commercial lenders in 2012 and the first quarter of 2013. Commercial lending expectations decreased, with projections of continued compression of interest rates and leverage multiples. The “long-term expectations” for the overall US economy were lowered, to the same ranges expressed in first quarter 2009. Nonetheless, defaults and bankruptcy filings continue to be down also, leading to “bubble” talk.
Of particular interest are the questions seeking opinions on which industries are believed to be subject to the most volatility for the rest of the year. Those include healthcare, retail, and construction. This should not come as a surprise to anyone, as the concerns with the unknowns swirling around the implementation of the Affordable Care Act are affecting both businesses and “consumer confidence” alike. The student lending market is also discussed.
The quarterly Phoenix lending surveys can be found at www.phoenixmanagement.com/survey/.